GOP GAINING, BUT LOOK AT THE NUMBERS WITH CAUTION – AT 11:06 A.M. ET:  Scott Rasmussen reports on dramatic Republican gains in voter party identification, but adds a note of caution:

In November, 36.0% of American Adults identified themselves as Republicans; 34.7% considered themselves Democrats, and 29.3% were not affiliated with either major party. That’s the largest number of Republicans since February 2005 and the first time ever that Rasmussen Reports polling has found more people identifying as Republicans than Democrats. Permalink...

...In each of the recent election cycles, the victorious party has gained in net partisan identification over the course of the election year.

It is worth noting, however, that the gains are often short-lived. Following Election 2004, the Republican partisan decline began in February 2005. In 2006, the Democratic edge began to decline as soon as they actually took control of Congress in January. Following President Obama’s victory in November 2008, the Democrat’s advantage in partisan identification peaked in December before declining.

Another point worth noting is that the GOP has the edge today partly because the number of Democrats is barely above the lowest level ever recorded in eight years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports. This supports the conclusion that Election 2010 was less a victory for the Republicans than a defeat for the Democrats.

COMMENT:  In other words, Republicans should take only a brief bow, then get to work.  The party must build a positive image, and come up with proposals that excite the American people.  It must think of itself as a governing party, not just an opposition party.  And it must resist the temptation toward ideological rigidity. 

Can the GOP do it?  Can it build enough of a base to win the 2012 presidential election and end the age of Obama before more damage is done?  Replies:  It will be difficult, especially with a hostile press.  But this last election showed, as Ronald Reagan's election in 1980 showed, that a party, or a candidate, can speak above the press to the American people.  And, despite all the ridicule of our citizens that you hear from the self-appointed intellectual elites, they do listen and they do understand.

December 4, 2010